Challenges in modelling behaviour
Sebastian Funk (@sbfnk)
https://epiforecasts.io
25 January, 2023
- Set the baseline and determine the effect of departing from it
- Assess how and to what extent behaviour should be modelled explicitly
- Determine the minimal level of detail required to model differences in behaviour
- Quantify changes in reporting behaviour
- Predict the response to interventions and health campaigns
- Identify the role of movement and travel
- Develop models that can be verified against data from digital sources
- Inform real-time data collection
- Engage in dialogue across disciplines
The COVID-19 pandemic has generated novel data on behaviour
In spite of unprecedented data availability, quantifying relevant behaviours has been challenging during the pandemic
We do not have a good handle on the relationship between government action and behaviour
Assuming behaviour does not change is a strong assumption
“We still lack a validated theory to describe the feedback loop between behaviours and disease”
Forecasting COVID-19 with behavioural data
- Set the baseline and determine the effect of departing from it
- Assess how and to what extent behaviour should be modelled explicitly
- Determine the minimal level of detail required to model differences in behaviour
- Quantify changes in reporting behaviour
- Predict the response to interventions and health campaigns
- Identify the role of movement and travel
- Develop models that can be verified against data from digital sources
- Inform real-time data collection
- Engage in dialogue across disciplines